Going into this year's draft there is a lot of talk regarding the top two QB prospects Andrew Luck from Stanford, and Robert Griffin III from Baylor. After these two QB's the rest of the QBs in the draft are up in the air as far as where they will end up. There's been discussion regarding Ryan Tannehill, from Texas A&M, as a possible surprise pick in the first round as well as Brandon Weeden being a late 1st round pick and this is where I begin to have problems with NFL draft analysts. Especially ESPN's Mel Kiper.
By now we have all heard of the Cinderella story Oklahoma State football had this past season. They won their first Big XII title, had a historic season on offense, won their first BCS bowl game, and was debatably robbed of a shot at the national title. But this blog isn't about OSU's best season in school history, this is about the best QB to ever play at OSU and why I do not believe he is worthy of a first round pick. Although I do attend the University of Oklahoma, OSU's arch rival, this is all based on an unbiased opinion and from a history of what I've seen as an OSU and OU student and as a Big XII football fan.
Let me first start off by saying that I have a hard time buying into any Big XII QB making a strong impact in the NFL. There are presently four starting QB's in the NFL that played in the Big XII conference and they are: Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, Colt McCoy, and Josh Freeman. Sam Bradford is the only QB that has proved himself of his pick as he was able to carry a team with absolutely no talent his rookie season and be one game away from reaching the post season. However, despite this accomplishment, he fell on his face in his sophomore campaign, but with an O-line like the St. Louis Rams, I don't know of many QBs that would be able to overcome that. Especially when your best wide receiver is an aging Brandon Lloyd.
Blaine Gabbert, despite all of the predraft hype of how he was a better prospect than Cam Newton, has only proven to be a terrible draft pick. Colt McCoy is a guy that I actually admire and hope the best for, but the sad truth is that he may only make his career in the NFL as a solid backup. Lastly, there is Josh Freeman. A QB I have a hard time evaluating as he had a poor rookie year, an outstanding sophomore season, and then another poor year in his third year as a starter. All of these QB's last year had a passer rating of under 76.0 So why should I believe a guy like Brandon Weeden is going to rise up and change anything?
In Weeden's first season as a full time starter, I watched him throw some of the most beautiful passes as well as some of the worst I'd ever seen, something I am now very used to seeing thanks to QB Landry Jones. At the end of the 2010 season, he was already being debated as the best QB in the Big XII which is something I will agree with. One thing a lot of us have seem to forgotten are a few performances he had against: Louisiana-Lafayette (where he threw 3 ints), Iowa State (where he again, threw 3 ints), and against Tulsa (where he threw 2 ints). I understand QB's can have bad games but the games in which he just did not show up are very alarming to me and almost a deja vu from several years ago.
In 2008, I witnessed one of the best college football seasons of all time. A season in which the Big XII South just looked as tough as any conference we had ever seen with 4 power house football teams with a 11-1 Oklahoma, 11-1 Texas, an 11-1 Texas Tech, and a 9-3 Oklahoma State team (all of their losses came against the top 3 in the Big 12 South). This 2011 Oklahoma State team reminds me a little of the 2008 Texas Tech team between Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. In Harrells last two seasons at TTU he threw for almost 12,000 yards and 93 TD passes where Weeden threw for a little over 9,000 yards and 71 TD passes. Granted, this isn't necessarily a fair comparison as Mike Leach ran the TTU offense primarily in a spread offense and Weeden actually had a good running game to turn too. The point is, Graham Harrell's success was debatably due to the tremendous wide receiver he had in Michael Crabtree, the two-time Biletnikoff winner. Weeden was also fortunate enough to have a two-time Biletnikoff winner to throw too in just about any situation as well as a Wes Welker type player in Josh Cooper. I think a lot of us tend to forget how much talent Weeden really had around him on offense.
Now I'm not trying to take anything away from Weeden's accomplishments, he is the best QB Oklahoma has had since Sam Bradford, but along with the weapons Weeden has had around him, his age is a big factor on why he is not worth a first round pick. Weeden, like most Big XII QB's, spent a majority of his snaps lined up in shotgun so unless he goes to the Patriots, or a couple of other NFL teams, and starts due to injury, he isn't going to take off like most people believe. Because of his age people like to assume he's NFL ready of the wisdom he has gained at this point. I again disagree with this. He still will need to do what every other QB does when drafted and go through training and spend hours and hours and hours learning how to become a traditional style QB. By the time he has that perfected and is ready to start he will already be in his 30's. By this point, I do not doubt he will become a decent NFL starting QB but nothing more. Once he reaches this point, you'll have him at this level for 4-6 years which to me is not worth a first round pick. Another thing scouts have question marks about is his tendency to stare down one receiver which is a contributing factor as to why he had 26 turnovers in his 2 full seasons as a starting QB.
Bottom line, his age, the talent he had surrounded himself with in his 2 seasons at Oklahoma State, and the history of the Big XII for producing duds in the NFL at QB are the 3 main reasons I don't think any team should invest in Weeden as a 1st round pick. 2nd-3rd is much more reasonable as I could see him in Cleveland or the Broncos with all of the uncertainty around Peyton Manning's durability. One thing I need to go ahead and mention is that although I am discrediting Big XII QBs why haven't I addressed RG3 then? RG3, in my eyes, is a very interesting prospect and unlike millions across the country, I have heard of and been watching him play since his freshman year. He has been impressive in his time at Baylor and despite being at Baylor university, still set milestones at that position. Although wide receiver Kendall Wright and running back Terrance Ganaway do not receive as much credit as they nearly deserve for their contributions this past season, they were not at that high of a level in the 2010 season and seasons past. RG3 still was a solid contributor in his 2 previous seasons despite the lack of talent around him. Plus, RG3 throws such a beautiful deep pass that I have a very hard time discrediting him.
Do I believe he's going to be as good as most analysts believe? Very hard for me to say since he has always been a playmaker for the Bears. But again, he plays in the Big XII, so if history has taught us anything the last 10 years, it's that the chances do not look good for him. However, RG3 brings more to the table than a lot of QBs in the past so only time will tell. At the end of the day, Andrew Luck IS the best QB in the draft and the Colts are foolish to draft anyone else 1st overall. Graduate from Stanford, athletic, terrific passer, and has potential to do for the Colts what Peyton Manning did. Again, only time will tell.
Ok, this should be fun.
ReplyDelete#1 You like Nick Foles, so your QB reviewing is already suspect.
The 5 best QBs in the NFL are from Big 10 (Tom Brady and Drew Brees), SEC (Peyton Manning and Eli Manning) and the Pac-#(Aaron Rodgers). So shouldn't Terrelle Pryor and Greg McElroy be destined for NFL success? Conference does not decide personal skill.
Just because it hasn't been done does not mean that it can't. Just ask Roger Bannister. Also, Alabama had 0 1st rd draft picks between 01 and 08. But now they have multiple every year.
I don't know who you spoke to, but Gabbert has always been awful and from what I've heard, perceived that way. I never heard anyone be really happy about drafting him.
Weeden's bad games-
ULaLa- First game of the season. Worked out the kinks
Tulsa- game started at 12:15 and they won the game by almost 4 touchdowns.
Iowa State- He got outplayed. It was his worst game. But, he also threw for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns in addition to those 3 interceptions.
How dare you compare Weeden to Graham Harrell. Thems's fightin' words. Kliff Kingsbury and BJ Symons were just as good as Graham Harrell. Blackmon was absolutely the best player on the team (just look at the Fiesta Bowl), but Weeden made the team go. He lead it as well as owning that offense. He knew the whole playbook in an offense that debuted when he got the starting nod. He can master an NFL offense.
Josh Cooper was a Top 10 receiver in OSU history statistically. But, he was outplayed/outgained by 2 other #2 receivers in the Big 12. Cooper had 715 yards and 3 touchdowns. Terrence Williams of Baylor had 957 yards and 11 touchdowns while Ryan Swope from A&M had 1,207 yards and 11 touchdowns. But sure, Cooper was so much more of an advantage.
Peyton Manning just signed a contract that if he plays it in entirety, will end when he is 41. If Weeden has that longevity, that would afford him a 13 year career.
His 27 turnovers occured on 1,075 pass attempts. That is a turnover once every 40 pass attempts. He also threw 71 touchdowns in that same span. That is one TD every 15 pass attempts.
Bob Griffin only threw a good deep pass this season. Which is when his very good teammates magically became good for their one season.
You didn't give any differences between Weeden and RG3 aside from his very good teammates not being very good.
So, Weeden is old, had 3 bad games and was spoiled with good teammates. Sounds like every other QB in this draft +6 years of age.
First you left out the part that Christian is the single most biased person I have met in my life. The only person I have ever seen with more bias is Skip Bayless. I'm not saying your entire article was biased, but with your past history of extreme biases it is hard for me to believe there was no bias at all going into this. This makes me think that you only looked for the negative aspects of Weeden's game. You put no effort into looking at the great things he has done, such as his great second half comeback against A&M or his thrashing of OU which no one thought was possible. Oh and don't forget his overtime victory in the Fiesta Bowl. You can say the kicker missed all you want and Weeden should have lost, but an overtime win is an overtime win and it counts the same just like when your boy Tebow squeaks out a win like that and you act like he is God's gift to football. Lastly I would like to say that I do not think Weeden should go first round, but it would not surprise me at all if this were to happen. I see him as an early second round guy. I would also like to thank Colin Johnston for saying all the stuff that I was already thinking in my head.
ReplyDeleteI will follow up with more later. Right now, you cannot speak for my bias when you both are biased towards the QB that played at YOUR University. Weeden hasn't done anything that we haven't already seen in the Big XII at a high level or offer anything we haven't already seen from the Big XII. Again, I'll post more tonight but for right now this is all I have time to say.
ReplyDeleteOk. I will begin addressing what Colin said.
ReplyDeleteFirst thing is regarding Nick Foles. I think he has potential to be good despite his win and loss record at Arizona. Kind of how in the same way a lot of people worshipped Jake Locker in his time at Washington. Nick Foles was able to produce good numbers for a team that went 4-8 despite having your leading rusher have 568 yards as well as having okay receivers. I don't believe for a second Foles is better than Weeden but I think Foles has a chance to become a solid backup as well an okay starter if given the opportunity. Foles is a diamond in the rough kind of player in this year's draft.
Second. The point of me bringing conference into the conversation is not that conferences like the SEC, Pac-12, or Big 10 produce better QBs, it's to say that we have seen players do what Weeden has done for the past several years and Weeden doesn't bring anything new to the table that I haven't already seen done in the Big XII. QBs in the Big XII flourish under the spread offense and tend to fall on their face once reaching the big leagues. Besides leadership and maturity, Weeden doesn't offer anything we haven't already seen before in the Big XII. As for the turnover column, Graham Harrell threw 1339 passes in his last two seasons and only had 23 turnovers, 1 less than Weeden. For every 58 passes he threw, he threw 1 int. Which is very impressive. Despite all of that, Harrell throws a TD every 14 attempts which is only 1 better than Weeden which makes what Weeden's done more credible. Am I suggesting that Harrell is better? It does sound like it, but I'm saying from that perspective Harrell already had better numbers. I am not taking anything away from Weeden accomplished, he had a terrific campaign at OSU and had great numbers. Weeden just has not done anything different than previous QBs that went into the draft from the Big XII.
I'll give Weeden credit and say that without him OSU finishes the season 9-3 with losses to Texas A&M and perhaps to K-State. Weeden does have leadership qualities that I can't dismiss but if his team could have (and I believe they would have) finished 9-3 without him that says a lot about the talent they had on that team. When Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham were out of the 2009 season they finished a disappointing 8-5 all because their offense lacked a spark I think we all could agree that could have been fixed with a healthy QB as the defense for OU was top 7 allowing only 13.5 a game. I mention this to prove that:
1. Landry Jones is worthless.
2. It says more about how much better Bradford made OU's offense when they had the defense to win the national title that year.
My point is Weeden doesn't bring anything new that we haven't seen.
We cannot assume that Weeden can play till he's 41. One thing we all forget about is he left baseball because of a torn labrum and tendinitis in the rotator cuff of his throwing arm and did not have surgery. The only QBs we know that were able to be very productive in their late 30's (that I remember) is Brett Favre. We'll see if Manning can deliver that production but Weeden is not even at the same class or level of either QB or can deliver at that high of a level. That we know of at least. I hope a QB from the Big XII can come in and just deliver and make us look good. But so far, it has yet to happen is my point and I don't believe Weeden does anything different or new from those past QB's. Having a receiver like Blackmon definitely does hurt him a little in credibility and I think Cooper is a great acquisition for any team to have.
As far as differences for Weeden and RG3 they both throw great and have great delivery but I give RG3 more credit for what he was able to do his first 2 seasons at Baylor despite having nobody there. In RG3's career at Baylor he had 17 ints. He averages a pick every 70 throws!!!!!! That's insane!!! He just doesn't turn the ball over.
Jack. I am incredibly biased towards the following: Tebow, Lebron James, Cam Newton, and anything Ohio State. I have no harsh bedlam grudges at all. As I said last year and this year Weeden was better than Landry and arguably the best QB in the Big XII. I think he's better than Tannehill and am confused on why he's projected top 10. Unless it's just based on athleticism then he's better than Weeden. As far as Weeden's accomplishments you're right to say I didn't give him enough credit regarding his comeback against A&M, his win against Stanford, and his win against OU. His comeback at A&M is proof that he does have clutch gene and I respect him for that. However, A&M last season, was probably the worst second half team I have ever witnessed in my life. Still impressive what Weeden did regardless. What he did to OU...impressive...but...OU lacked leadership, heart, and discipline. I could go on for hours about the many issues with OU's team last season and who I would love to see begging for money on the streets of Norman next year, but I won't. We got beat by a terrible Texas Tech team, a questionable Baylor team, and a great Oklahoma State team. OU was just not what they were hyped to be. This article was just about how Weeden is not worthy of a first round pick because of what I've seen, or lack of, from Big XII QBs in the NFL and that he doesn't bring anything we haven't already seen in the Big XII. His game against Stanford....off the top of my head I can only name 2 games that the losing team lost because of their bad play calling or mistakes that could be avoided. The Fiesta Bowl is one of them. Andrew Luck, who was 27-31, was unstoppable and if that coach had any sense, he would have milked the clock while having Luck drive down the field to score a TD instead of trusting your rookie kicker to seal the game. The other game a team lost was the Chicago Bears when Marion Barber went out of bounds in the last moments of the Broncos game that would lead to Tebow producing his 4th quarter magic and win the game. I have a hard time saying that Weeden won the game just because of how Stanford performed their last drive. Like Colin said, Blackmon is their best player and he showed that in the Fiesta Bowl as I would have hated to be the corner assigned to him that game. I don't believe they beat Stanford without Blackmon. I have faith that Blackmon will be a top 10 receiver in the NFL because of what he did at OSU as well as his great work ethic.
ReplyDeleteWe could argue lots of things like we already have. But, that is fruitless since we all have valid points. My takeaway is that QB is the most valuable position in all of sports. So, if you can get a quality one, it is worth a 1st. QBs were taken 1,8,10,12,35,36. That's 6 QBs in the top 36. Weeden isn't worth taking there? I think his range is 22-37. 37 is his absolute floor with Cleveland picking in that spot. Isn't he worth a Colin Kaepernick pick?
ReplyDelete