My problem with Brandon Weeden as a high NFL prospect.

Going into this year's draft there is a lot of talk regarding the top two QB prospects Andrew Luck from Stanford, and Robert Griffin III from Baylor. After these two QB's the rest of the QBs in the draft are up in the air as far as where they will end up. There's been discussion regarding Ryan Tannehill, from Texas A&M, as a possible surprise pick in the first round as well as Brandon Weeden being a late 1st round pick and this is where I begin to have problems with NFL draft analysts. Especially ESPN's Mel Kiper. 

By now we have all heard of the Cinderella story Oklahoma State football had this past season. They won their first Big XII title, had a historic season on offense, won their first BCS bowl game, and was debatably robbed of a shot at the national title. But this blog isn't about OSU's best season in school history, this is about the best QB to ever play at OSU and why I do not believe he is worthy of a first round pick. Although I do attend the University of Oklahoma, OSU's arch rival, this is all based on an unbiased opinion and from a history of what I've seen as an OSU and OU student and as a Big XII football fan.

Let me first start off by saying that I have a hard time buying into any Big XII QB making a strong impact in the NFL. There are presently four starting QB's in the NFL that played in the Big XII conference and they are: Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, Colt McCoy, and Josh Freeman. Sam Bradford is the only QB that has proved himself of his pick as he was able to carry a team with absolutely no talent his rookie season and be one game away from reaching the post season. However, despite this accomplishment, he fell on his face in his sophomore campaign, but with an O-line like the St. Louis Rams, I don't know of many QBs that would be able to overcome that. Especially when your best wide receiver is an aging Brandon Lloyd. 

Blaine Gabbert, despite all of the predraft hype of how he was a better prospect than Cam Newton, has only proven to be a terrible draft pick. Colt McCoy is a guy that I actually admire and hope the best for, but the sad truth is that he may only make his career in the NFL as a solid backup. Lastly, there is Josh Freeman. A QB I have a hard time evaluating as he had a poor rookie year, an outstanding sophomore season, and then another poor year in his third year as a starter. All of these QB's last year had a passer rating of under 76.0 So why should I believe a guy like Brandon Weeden is going to rise up and change anything?

In Weeden's first season as a full time starter, I watched him throw some of the most beautiful passes as well as some of the worst I'd ever seen, something I am now very used to seeing thanks to QB Landry Jones. At the end of the 2010 season, he was already being debated as the best QB in the Big XII which is something I will agree with. One thing a lot of us have seem to forgotten are a few performances he had against: Louisiana-Lafayette (where he threw 3 ints), Iowa State (where he again, threw 3 ints), and against Tulsa (where he threw 2 ints). I understand QB's can have bad games but the games in which he just did not show up are very alarming to me and almost a deja vu from several years ago. 

In 2008, I witnessed one of the best college football seasons of all time. A season in which the Big XII South just looked as tough as any conference we had ever seen with 4 power house football teams with a 11-1 Oklahoma, 11-1 Texas, an 11-1 Texas Tech, and a 9-3 Oklahoma State team (all of their losses came against the top 3 in the Big 12 South). This 2011 Oklahoma State team reminds me a little of the 2008 Texas Tech team between Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. In Harrells last two seasons at TTU he threw for almost 12,000 yards and 93 TD passes where Weeden threw for a little over 9,000 yards and 71 TD passes. Granted, this isn't necessarily a fair comparison as Mike Leach ran the TTU offense primarily in a spread offense and Weeden actually had a good running game to turn too. The point is, Graham Harrell's success was debatably due to the tremendous wide receiver he had in Michael Crabtree, the two-time Biletnikoff winner. Weeden was also fortunate enough to have a two-time Biletnikoff winner to throw too in just about any situation as well as a Wes Welker type player in Josh Cooper. I think a lot of us tend to forget how much talent Weeden really had around him on offense.

Now I'm not trying to take anything away from Weeden's accomplishments, he is the best QB Oklahoma has had since Sam Bradford, but along with the weapons Weeden has had around him, his age is a big factor on why he is not worth a first round pick. Weeden, like most Big XII QB's, spent a majority of his snaps lined up in shotgun so unless he goes to the Patriots, or a couple of other NFL teams, and starts due to injury, he isn't going to take off like most people believe. Because of his age people like to assume he's NFL ready of the wisdom he has gained at this point. I again disagree with this. He still will need to do what every other QB does when drafted and go through training and spend hours and hours and hours learning how to become a traditional style QB. By the time he has that perfected and is ready to start he will already be in his 30's. By this point, I do not doubt he will become a decent NFL starting QB but nothing more. Once he reaches this point, you'll have him at this level for 4-6 years which to me is not worth a first round pick. Another thing scouts have question marks about is his tendency to stare down one receiver which is a contributing factor as to why he had 26 turnovers in his 2 full seasons as a starting QB. 

Bottom line, his age, the talent he had surrounded himself with in his 2 seasons at Oklahoma State, and the history of the Big XII for producing duds in the NFL at QB are the 3 main reasons I don't think any team should invest in Weeden as a 1st round pick. 2nd-3rd is much more reasonable as I could see him in Cleveland or the Broncos with all of the uncertainty around Peyton Manning's durability. One thing I need to go ahead and mention is that although I am discrediting Big XII QBs why haven't I addressed RG3 then? RG3, in my eyes, is a very interesting prospect and unlike millions across the country, I have heard of and been watching him play since his freshman year. He has been impressive in his time at Baylor and despite being at Baylor university, still set milestones at that position. Although wide receiver Kendall Wright and running back Terrance Ganaway do not receive as much credit as they nearly deserve for their contributions this past season, they were not at that high of a level in the 2010 season and seasons past. RG3 still was a solid contributor in his 2 previous seasons despite the lack of talent around him. Plus, RG3 throws such a beautiful deep pass that I have a very hard time discrediting him.

Do I believe he's going to be as good as most analysts believe? Very hard for me to say since he has always been a playmaker for the Bears. But again, he plays in the Big XII, so if history has taught us anything the last 10 years, it's that the chances do not look good for him. However,  RG3 brings more to the table than a lot of QBs in the past so only time will tell. At the end of the day, Andrew Luck IS the best QB in the draft and the Colts are foolish to draft anyone else 1st overall. Graduate from Stanford, athletic, terrific passer, and has potential to do for the Colts what Peyton Manning did. Again, only time will tell.

J! E! T! S! JETS JETS JETS!

So Tim Tebow is officially going to be a New York Jet as of March 24th at 4 p.m. I was honestly surprised by this outcome since I fully expected he would land in Miami, Florida to be a Dolphin. I'll be honest, after a couple of hours of thinking about it...I realized this is the best fit for Tebow and for his career a well as for Rex Ryan's future. He is going to be put in as a back-up to the 3 year starter, Mark Sanchez. Mark Sanchez is arguably one of the most over-rated players in the NFL and has been babied ever since he was given the starting position. I realize calling Mark Sanchez over rated is humorous for me to say despite the debate surrounding Tebow but that's not the point. Mark Sanchez is officially now set up to either:

A. Step-up in his role as a leader and perform to the level his contract shows he should be doing. Or

B. For Tebowmania, or what some people are now calling Timsanity, to take hold of the Big Apple and become the Jets new starting QB.

In the end, I believe the pressure will crush Mark Sanchez and he will be riding the bench as he watches a winner take the helm of the franchise and lead them on a magical run as he once did in Denver. Another thing I absolutely love about this outcome is the chemistry that will develop between Tim Tebow and Rex Ryan. Although they are two completely different people Rex Ryan was a victim of Tebowmania and knows exactly what Tim is capable of. Rex Ryan is also the type of guy that doesn't care how Tebow is playing the QB position so long as they are winning, which will give Tebow that security to know he isn't constantly battling for his life to keep his starting spot, which will give him more comfort in the position. To me, this is a match made in heaven and provides Tebow with the largest stage in the U.S. to continue on his journey of saving souls. Once he becomes a starter (which I predict will be mid-season going into their 9th game) the morale in the locker room will slowly, but surely change. I don't believe the Jets will be holding Bible studies or going on mission trips but they will have the magic and belief the Broncos once had last season, but there will be more of it.

Tebow now has the backing of a REAL top 5 defense and with a more talented and experienced receiving corp. By the end of the Jets 2012 regular season, Tebow will have a record between 6-2, 5-2, or even 5-3 (depending on when he is started), leading them to a win in the wildcard round at the Denver Broncos but will fall short in the Divisonal round to the Baltimore Ravens. Depending on when Rex Ryan is ready to change the tradition of the New York Jets and out of the shadows of the New York Football Giants and start Tebow is when their playoff run will start. The difference is, Tebow will  develop as a passer and I believe he will complete over 50% of his passes. Does that make him an elite QB? No. But it makes him more consistent and what people underestimate and forget is that Tim Tebow has made a living out of proving people wrong and works harder than 99% of the players in the NFL. He will become a consistent passer and in his second year with the Jets will be completing 59% of his passes. Book it.

Despite all of this, I will still be rooting hard for my Denver Broncos as they now have secured a playoff spot for the next 3-4 seasons, so long as Peyton Manning is healthy. Although, if Manning falls to injury, and the Broncos hit a losing streak, I will be slightly satisfied as I watch John Elway fall to his knees knowing the mistake he made and hopefully see an over-rated John Fox lose his job. In the way they handled and treated Tebow, despite my love for the player, would have been wrong no matter who it was. Their actions went against every word they had both said regarding their belief in Tim Tebow and if they never believed in him, they never should have given him the impression otherwise. As this drama slows down and Tebow signs with the Jets, I will start writing about other sports stories rather than just Tim Tebow. What I do know is, with Linsanity and Timsanity in the same state, that makes my love for New York grow by more levels than ever imagined.

The First and Surely not the last blog about sports. And Tebow

So I've thought about publishing a blog but decided against it many times but after all of the Denver Bronco drama I just feel like I have to put my thoughts somewhere that doesn't fill peoples news feeds with sports talk. So today Peyton Manning announced he will be opening negotiating with the Denver Broncos, something that I had sadly been hoping wouldn't happen. My mind said Manning but my heart said to keep my man crush Tim Tebow. After all, I had been a Denver Bronco fan for as long as I can remember and Tebow took us on a magical run and a playoff win I had not experienced since 05 when we were one game away from the Super Bowl.

So how do I officially feel? Great move by John Elway and John Fox. Two men who never believed in Tim Tebow as a long term solution and the only way you'll ever get away with trading or releasing a man that made your franchise relevant is to bring in a guy who is arguably one of the greatest QB's of all time. I even have a hard time ripping John Elway for this, as the Broncos now have a secure spot in the playoffs for the remainder of Peyton's career. One thing Peyton will realize is that he is now apart of a team that is falling apart and is highly overrated.

I hear a lot of,"Tebow's 8-5 campaign had a lot to do with the Bronco's defense and Von Miller!" My problem with this argument is Denver's defense was ranked 24th in total yards and scoring on defense, 18th against the run, and 22nd against the pass. The defense many want to crown as "Top 10" did not even finish in the top half of the league in any category.  I'll take this a step further and dissect the games the defense receives a lot of credit. I'll just summarize the wins over the Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, Chargers, and the Bears. The only impressive performance defensively against any of these opponents is holding the Chargers to 13. Every other performance is not impressive in the slightest. Why should this defense be deemed "good" for holding, what was, a winless Miami team to 15, The Chiefs to 10 and 7 in both meetings, and 13 to the the lowly Jets offense?  Not to mention the lifeless Bears that after losing Jay Cutler lost 5 out of 6 games without him and did nothing but put up low numbers offensively. That Broncos defense SHOULD hold these teams to low numbers. Just because they did doesn't make them "good". It makes them average. Don't get me wrong, the defense did keep the Broncos in a few of the Broncos wins, but they are not the sole reason they won. Where was this "good" defense when they faced the piss poor Minnesota Vikings where Christian Ponder looked like Brett Favre throwing for a Viking rookie record of 381? This defense has been blown off the field for 30+ point games 6 times in 18 games. This is why I am unimpressed with the defense of the Denver Broncos.

Where do I think Tebow will land? Hard to say. I'd love to have him and Manning in Denver and run an offense similar to the University of Oklahoma's (except with a great passer) and just have Manning run the offense until the Broncos reach 1st and goal or 3rd and short down situations. Throw Tebow in at QB (in OU's case Blake Bell) and have him earn those tough yards. Realistically, I think the best location for him is Miami. After failing to pick up Matt Flynn or Peyton Manning in free agency, the Dolphins have reached out to sign David Gerrard that puts Miami in a very unsure situation. A Miami team where a defense was top 5 in scoring, 15th in total yards, 25th in passing, and 3rd against the run. This team can flourish with Tim Tebow at QB and Miami got hot late in the season and despite starting 0-6, finished the season 6-10. Tebow can sell tickets, lead comebacks, and continue to develop as he can help the Dolphins become a legitimate threat in the AFC. I don't believe Tebow is the piece to dethrone Tom Brady, but Tebow and the Dolphins could definitely earn wildcard spots.

In conclusion, this free agency period and all of the trade talks more than makes up for the lack of any NFL offseason fun due to the lockout last year. Oh, and don't forget, #FreeTebow